Kevin Benedict is a TCS futurist and lecturer focused on the signals and foresight that emerge as society, geopolitics, economies, science, technology, environment, and philosophy converge.
Building a Better Society
Future Catalysts that Just Might Change Us
Catalysts that Shaped Human History
How Beliefs Influence the Future
Reading the News Like a Futurist with Alex Whittington
Using Physics to Understand the Future
"While there can be surprise technological and market disruptions, classical Newtonian mechanical physics’ suggestions that trajectories are the flight paths determined by mass positioning, direction, and momentum as a function of time can help us make accurate predictions." ~ Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld & Steven Tian
As a writer, I appreciate gifts of inspiration. Reading the above quote set my mind off this morning. It is so true! As a futurist we are always studying trends, innovations and developments, and then searching for signals that will inform us about the "trajectories," each of them will follow. Using Newtonian mechanical physics as helpful metaphors to understand directions and how much inertia a trend has, how fast it is changing, and how much resistance it might face are all useful considerations.
I have had the pleasure over the last year to meet with the leadership teams of many large companies around the world to talk about the future. Bringing a list of over 350 fast evolving trends across the domains of science, technology, societal, geopolitical and economic is a good place to start, but these discussions almost always turn quickly toward Newtonian mechanical physics. How much? How fast? When? What direction? How much inertia? What kind of resistance? These are the right questions!
As I covered in an article earlier this week, we can create different buckets of trends, innovations and developments. Some, are incremental innovations, while others are "launchpad" developments that will support entire new ways of thinking and will change the direction of our future.
It's not enough to pocket a list of quickly evolving trends, developments and technologies. One must understand the physics involved, the dependencies for a development to move forward, understand which rung on the historic ladder of progress a development is sitting, and also understand it's potential for scaling. These, of course, are just the beginning, but they are a good place to start.
A Futurist Pondering Biological vs. Digital Learning
Launchpads and Convergences
- Broad Applicability: Technologies that can be applied across a wide range of industries and disciplines.
- Potential for Disruption: Technologies that challenge or revolutionize the existing way of doing things in significant areas (like communication, energy, transportation).
- Scalability: The potential to be scaled up efficiently and economically to serve large populations.
- Foundation for Further Innovation: A technology that serves as a foundation on which other technologies can be built.
- Addressing Fundamental Needs or Problems: Technologies that solve fundamental human problems or needs (like health, safety, communication).
- Interconnectivity: The ability to connect with and enhance existing technologies or infrastructures.
- Economic Viability: The potential for economic sustainability, profitability and with widespread adoption and development.
- 5G/6G
- Sustainable Energy
- Internet of Things
- Artificial Intelligence
- Drones
- Mixed/Extended/Augmented/Virtual Realities
- Blockchain/Distributed Ledger
- Precision Foods - Farming/Fermentations/Lab Grown/Vertical/Plant Based
- Robotics
- Synthetic Biology
- Genetic Engineering
- Genomics
- Precision Medicine
- Nanotech
- Quantum Computing
Chain of Development
Lessons in Scaling
- Technological Innovation: At the core of most scaling endeavors is a technological breakthrough. From the invention of the plow in agriculture to cloud computing in the digital age, technology acts as a catalyst that enables scaling by improving efficiency and productivity.
- Standardization: The adoption of the alphabet and the creation of global supply chains both required standardization (think 40 foot shipping containers). Standardized processes, measurements, and systems enable replication and consistency, which are essential for scaling.
- Infrastructure Development: Robust infrastructure, such as Roman aqueducts and sewage systems, railroads, and telecommunication networks, supports the expansion of scale by facilitating the flow of goods, services, and information.
- Economic Systems: The development of financial institutions and corporate structures provided the framework necessary for scaling industries and managing large-scale economic activities efficiently.
- Sociopolitical Factors: The spread of major world religions and the impact of world wars demonstrate the role of governance, ideology, and organizational capability in scaling. These factors can direct resources, mobilize populations, and enforce systems that enable scaling.
- Globalization: Many forms of scaling were made possible due to the expansion of global interactions. Trade routes, maritime technologies, and later, aviation and the internet, all contributed to creating a globalized world where ideas, products, and innovations could scale rapidly.
- Human Capital Development: The proliferation of global education systems and the resultant improved literacy rates fostered a knowledgeable workforce capable of driving and sustaining scaling efforts.
- Regulatory Frameworks: As seen with the United Nations' formation, effective scaling often requires governance structures that can manage increased complexity and maintain standards across expanded domains.
- Ethical and Social Considerations: The negative aspects of scaling, such as labor conditions during the Industrial Revolution or the environmental impact of the oil industry, highlight that scaling often brings with it ethical and societal challenges that need addressing. Synthetic biology, artificial intelligence and climate change ensure these kinds of ethical challenges will continue into the future.
Scaling has Benefits |
The Essence of Intelligent Digital Leadership
The Phenomenon of Scaling
- Geopolitical Implications: Scaling, particularly in the realm of technology, has given rise to superpower corporations whose influence rivals that of countries. Such entities, with their vast resources and global reach, have often become essential players in diplomatic circles, sometimes even mediating in geopolitical tensions. For instance, the rise of multinational corporations has led to a new form of diplomacy where trade and business interests often take precedence over traditional geopolitical considerations.
- Market Dynamics: Scaling has led to the formation of global markets, transcending traditional boundaries. While this has provided consumers with diverse choices and competitive prices, it has also posed challenges such as monopolies and the undermining of local businesses. The dominance of few scaled entities can sometimes stifle innovation and lead to market stagnation.
- Impact on Nations: The story of scaling is also the story of urbanization. As businesses scaled, they prompted massive urban migrations, leading to the rise of mega-cities. While such urban centers have become hubs of innovation and economic growth, they've also brought challenges like inequality, overcrowding, and environmental degradation.
- Wars and Peace: The scaling of industries, especially in the realm of armaments and technologies, has significantly impacted the nature of warfare. On the one hand, scaled production played a crucial role in World War II outcomes; on the other, the scaled proliferation of nuclear technology has led to deterrence strategies, arguably preventing large scale conflicts. Furthermore, economic interdependencies between scaled economies have often acted as a deterrent against conflicts, promoting negotiations and peace over war.
- Economic Impacts: The ability of companies to scale has been a significant driver of global economic growth. Scaled businesses contribute massively to GDPs, employ vast numbers of people, and spur innovations that drive economic progress. However, this has also led to economic disparities, both within and between nations. As certain sectors or regions scale rapidly, others that can't keep pace may face economic stagnation.
- Cultural Implications: As businesses and technologies scale, they also transport their native cultures with them. This has led to a blending of cultures in some cases and a homogenization in others. The global influence of scaled entities like Hollywood or major tech companies has sometimes overshadowed local cultures, leading to debates about cultural imperialism.
The Legacy and Future of Scaling
A Kaleidoscopic Future
Influencing the Future or Not
Navigating the Future: Essential Characteristics and Strategies for Leaders
- Data as the modern commercial battlefield
- The pursuit of information dominance
- The importance of optimized information logistics systems
- The value of speed, analytics, and operational tempos
- The necessity of real-time operational tempos
- The competitive edge of quick data analysis and action
- The exponential increase in competitive advantages through data-driven strategies
- The benefits of situational awareness in innovation and efficiency
- The growing economic value and innovation opportunities through data collection and analysis
- The diminishing value of data over time and the importance of timely utilization
- The multiplier effect of contextual information and timely delivery
- The emphasis on digital twin capabilities and strategic information use over sheer size
- Embrace data and AI: Leverage data, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning (ML) to gain insights, make better decisions, and enhance efficiency.
- Automate processes: Explore and implement automation to improve your business and customer experience.
- Capture and codify expertise: Record and digitize human knowledge for use in automation and decision-making.
- Enhance visibility and information access: Utilize technology to gain better insights, situational awareness, and decision-making capabilities.
- Adopt digital twins: Use digital twins for remote sensing, action, and scenario simulations.
- Use networks to innovate: Upgrade your strategies, business models and user experiences as networks enabled new capabilities.
- Align strategies with technology: Ensure your strategies evolve in tandem with emerging technologies and customer expectations.
- Understand and navigate time dimensions: Balance human, digital, and future time to optimize performance and prepare for the future.
- Encourage innovation and adaptability: Foster a culture of innovation and adaptability to maintain a competitive edge.
- Focus on customer experience: Understand customer interactions and design inspiring journeys for them.
- Define your purpose: Develop an authentic and inspiring purpose to motivate employees, customers, and stakeholders.
- Build and engage with ecosystems: Collaborate with partners and stakeholders within your industry ecosystem to create more value.
- Prioritize learning and adaptability: Continuously learn about and adapt to new technologies and trends.
- Simplify processes: Reduce complexity to improve agility, speed and innovation.
- Assess and adapt to future scenarios: Utilize frameworks and models to anticipate future changes and adapt accordingly.
- Consider generational perspectives: Understand and cater to the different perspectives of each generation.
- Improve human experiences: Strive to make the workplace and world more fulfilling for human beings.
- Foster purposeful thinking: Encourage and invest in thoughtful decision-making and innovation within your organization.
- Establish a unifying doctrine: Develop guiding principles to unify your organization and provide a basis for action.
The Best Future Focused Interviews of 2022
- What Do You Believe about the Future with Futurist Gerd Leonhard
- How Humans Learned to See the Future with Futurist Byron Reese
- The Past, Present and Future of the Digital Workplace with Expert Ashok Krish
- 2020 Revisited with Cornell Tech’s Greg Morrisett
- The Future of Income, Careers and Human Potential with Alex Whittington
- Winning the Right Game - Ecosystem Business Strategies with Dr. Ron Adner
- The Future of Climate Risk with Expert Steve Bennett
- The Future of Safety with Expert Christoffer Malm
- Understanding the Future and How to Prepare with David Espindola
- The Future of Eldercare with Expert Ved Sen
Preparing for the Future: Operating in Three Time Dimensions
The better we are at understanding the future, the more value can be harvested from it today. ~Kevin Benedict
What You Believe about the Future with Futurist Gerd Leonhard
The Future of Income, Careers, and Human Potential with Futurist Alex Whittington
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