The Inevitable Minimization of Human Decision-Making

In the near future, many jobs that are accomplished today by humans will be done by sensors, software, and machines.  These include jobs where responsibilities involve inspections, measuring, monitoring, tracking, adjusting, analyzing, moving things and tactical decision-making.  Many of these jobs are tedious or dangerous and having machines take over will be a positive development.  For example, the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense recently announced plans for an Amazon-style delivery service in combat zones that will be operated by autonomous robots with air and ground capabilities.  Future Force Development leader Maj. Matt McGarvey-Miles shared that, "Robotic and autonomous system capabilities will play an increasing role in delivering “deployed sustainment” [supplies to troops] in the near-future."  These frontline delivery robots won’t just know a soldier’s static address, but where they are located in real-time while moving in combat zones.  That capability requires sophisticated algorithms and secure real-time GPS-style navigation capabilities.

In addition to autonomous delivery services in combat environments, robots will increasingly be assigned to support soldiers in the most dangerous missions which are often found in complex urban combat environments.  Robots can be used to pick-up and transport the wounded, remove doors, provide access inside buildings, and be the first to enter and surveil a room in combat conditions.  Knowledge is power, and once the robot(s) inform troops about the dangers and resistance they might face, then humans can take the appropriate defensive and offensive countermeasures.

These autonomous robots utilize GPS-type coordinates that are three dimensional (3D).  Usually, 3D means longitude, latitude, and altitude, but the more sensors that are focused on a location or object the more information, or dimensions can be captured, shared, and analyzed.  For example, my Garmin InReach GPS device knows my location including longitude, latitude, and altitude, but it also knows the terrain I am on, date, time, year, where I started, where I have stopped, where I have been, how fast I am traveling, and in situations where I have waypoints - it knows where I am going.  Each of these data points represent additional dimensions.  So instead of having just 3D insight, you might have 16D insight.  You can imagine why a military robot delivering supplies, pizza and ammunition would need all of this information and more to find the soldier that ordered it.

As mentioned earlier, knowledge is power, but too much complexity can easily overwhelm humans.  So, the more dimensions that are captured and analyzed, the more dependent humans will be on algorithms and AI to make the best instantaneous decisions.  This requirement increases the dependencies humans will have on technology, which in turn opens us up to new kinds of vulnerabilities.

Every technology innovation comes with its own new set of guaranteed vulnerabilities.  As big thinker, philosopher, urbanist and professor Paul Virilio said, “When airplanes were invented, so were their accidents.”  Many of the autonomous machines we have discussed, depend on GPS-type connectivity for navigation.  GPS connectivity is provided by a network of orbiting satellites that are vulnerable to missile attacks in space.  The invention of the GPS satellites automatically included the vulnerability and risk of warfare in space.

Vulnerabilities attract the attention of both friends and adversaries, and this attention results in big investments.  The unintended consequences of making autonomous machines dependent on GPS-type technologies in space is the need for the militarization of space to defend them.

Innovations are not just happening in the air, on the ground and in space.  Massive changes are also happening under the sea, and inside the world’s navies. Unmanned submarines are now believed to be the key to dominating the world’s oceans.  As a result, the urgent need for unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) is now driving research and investments in underwater communications, autonomous navigation, and unmanned swarm technologies.

In the revealing book, Hyperwars, the authors Amir Husain and John R. Allen write that the need for instant decision-making based on complex analysis of real-time data will force humans and human decision-making out of many decision-action loops.  The unintended consequences of more data, complexity and faster technologies is the transference of many military decisions to machines.  What will be the next unintended consequence of that?

Am I the only one that feels all these unintended consequences are causing even more unintended consequences?  As stewards of civilization, I see a real need for us to regain our purpose.

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Kevin Benedict

Partner | Futurist at TCS

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***Full Disclosure: These are my personal opinions. No company is silly enough to claim them. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.