In 2016, total worldwide retail sales reached $22 trillion, of which digital commerce makes up $1.9 trillion, or 8.7% of the total. While the majority of retail sales still occur in brick-and-mortar stores, overall growth is predominantly driven by digital commerce, which was expected to expand rapidly worldwide at a 23.7% growth rate in 2016, and by 2020 to represent 14.6% of total retail spending of $27 trillion. Of course, digital commerce numbers vary depending on the product category. Online sales penetration for many product types – electronics, apparel, furniture, home improvement, etc. – are significantly higher than worldwide retail sales projections, while categories such as petrol, convenience and grocery have a much lower penetration.
In the U.S., sales at department stores fell almost 6% in 2016, while online retail sales rose 11%. As a result, bricks-and-mortar retailers have been forced to re-evaluate their business performance, and many, such as Sears, Macy’s, Aeropostale, Chico’s and American Eagle, have needed to close stores. Still others – especially those who have failed to digitally transform – are going out of business altogether, including The Limited and Wet Seal. In an industry with razor-thin margins and intense competition, missing out on key growth opportunities are a ticket to irrelevancy, or worse.
Given the rapid rise in digital commerce, retailers are increasingly concerned about profitability since online sales are believed to contribute to margin erosion. In fact, some retailers fear that an over-reliance on digital technologies will dilute margins. These concerns, however, are not supported by our research. Rather, retailers with strong to very strong revenue growth, which we correlate with digital leadership, also tend to realize higher profits.
Retailers have enjoyed consistent revenue growth through their digital channels for the last several years. This growth is expected to accelerate into the foreseeable future. In fact, retailers are increasingly dependent on digital commerce growth as sales soften through traditional channels. In fact, 22% of retailers in our study said they generate 30% or more of their sales from digital channels. By 2020, 79% of retailers forecast they will receive 30% or more of their sales from digital channels, a massive 259% increase.
Nearly all retailers (98%) achieve at least some of their revenue through digital channels today; most respondents anticipate much of their future growth to be driven by digital commerce. Retailers with exceptionally strong (11%-plus) revenue growth already derive a higher percentage of their sales from digital channels, according to our research. These retailers also forecast a more bullish future than lower performing retailers. You can download the full report, "How Digital Thinking Separates Retail Leaders from Laggards" here.
Watch the 3-minute video on digital thinking in retail.
Follow Kevin Benedict on Twitter @krbenedict, or read more of his articles on digital transformation strategies here:
- Digital Thinking and Beyond!
- Measuring the Pace of Change in the Fourth Industrial Revolution
- How Digital Thinking Separates Retail Leaders from Laggards
- To Bot, or Not to Bot
- Oils, Bots, AI and Clogged Arteries
- Artificial Intelligence Out of Doors in the Kingdom of Robots
- How Digital Leaders are Different
- The Three Tsunamis of Digital Transformation - Be Prepared!
- Bots, AI and the Next 40 Months
- You Only Have 40 Months to Digitally Transform
- Digital Technologies and the Greater Good
- Video Report: 40 Months of Hyper-Digital Transformation
- Report: 40 Months of Hyper-Digital Transformation
- Virtual Moves to Real in with Sensors and Digital Transformation
- Technology Must Disappear in 2017
- Merging Humans with AI and Machine Learning Systems
- In Defense of the Human Experience in a Digital World
- Profits that Kill in the Age of Digital Transformation
- Competing in Future Time and Digital Transformation
- Digital Hope and Redemption in the Digital Age
- Digital Transformation and the Role of Faster
- Digital Transformation and the Law of Thermodynamics
- Jettison the Heavy Baggage and Digitally Transform
- Digital Transformation - The Dark Side
- Business is Not as Usual in Digital Transformation
- 15 Rules for Winning in Digital Transformation
- The End Goal of Digital Transformation
- Digital Transformation and the Ignorance Penalty
- Surviving the Three Ages of Digital Transformation
- The Advantages of an Advantage in Digital Transformation
- From Digital to Hyper-Transformation
- Believers, Non-Believers and Digital Transformation
- Forces Driving the Digital Transformation Era
- Digital Transformation Requires Agility and Energy Measurement
- A Doctrine for Digital Transformation is Required
- Digital Transformation and Its Role in Mobility and Competition
- Digital Transformation - A Revolution in Precision Through IoT, Analytics and Mobility
- Competing in Digital Transformation and Mobility
- Ambiguity and Digital Transformation
- Digital Transformation and Mobility - Macro-Forces and Timing
- Mobile and IoT Technologies are Inside the Curve of Human Time
Kevin Benedict
Senior Analyst, Center for the Future of Work, Cognizant
View my profile on LinkedIn
Follow me on Twitter @krbenedict
Subscribe to Kevin's YouTube Channel
Join the Linkedin Group Strategic Enterprise Mobility
Join the Google+ Community Mobile Enterprise Strategies
***Full Disclosure: These are my personal opinions. No company is silly enough to claim them. I am a mobility and digital transformation analyst, consultant and writer. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.
