Showing posts with label foresight. Show all posts
Showing posts with label foresight. Show all posts

Vices and Virtues that Impact Foresight, #14

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How many of us have tried to convince another about the merits of an argument using data, facts, science, evidence and logic, only to make no progress at all.  The biases and lenses we all use to filter information changes our reality and view of the future as the following examples demonstrate.

On a frozen January afternoon in 1982, Air Florida Flight 90 sat on the runway at Washington National Airport. Snow drifted across the tarmac, visibility was low, and ice clung to the wings and engine inlets. Inside the cockpit, Captain Larry Wheaton studied the power readings with a growing sense of unease. “That doesn’t look right, does it?” he said softly—less a warning than a quiet appeal.

His first officer sensed the danger too. The instruments looked wrong. The engines felt slow. Nearby aircraft reported dangerous levels of ice. Yet both men excused their concerns, hoping the other would carry the burden of truth. Their unease grew, but neither spoke with the clarity reality demanded. Weak signals accumulated around them like snow flakes.

Moments later, Flight 90 lifted off with too little thrust. The engines stalled almost instantly, strangled by ice. The aircraft plunged into the Potomac River, killing seventy-eight people.

There was no mechanical failure.

The system did not break.

The humans did.

This cockpit was not simply a tragedy—it was a perfect illustration of moral misalignment: the quiet internal distortions that disable clear perception, distort orientation, and prevent leaders from acting on reality as it actually is. The pilots were not incompetent or malicious. They were human beings under emotional pressure, swept along by subtle vices—fear, deference, denial, avoidance, ego sensitivity. Each distortion was small. Together they made catastrophe inevitable.

Most systems do not crash into icy rivers; they drift, little by little, until the drift becomes distance. And always, misalignment destroys foresight long before it destroys anything else. Every inflection point begins with weak signals. Every future arrives with early warnings. But leaders, teams and organizations who are internally misaligned cannot adequately perceive them.

You cannot anticipate what you refuse to perceive. Let me repeat this point, “You cannot anticipate what you refuse to perceive.” Weak signals register only in systems that are aligned enough—internally clear enough—to let discomfort become information that is acted upon. 

Flight 90 was surrounded by signals: ice on the wings, abnormal power readings, sluggish acceleration, warnings from other pilots. But misalignment muffled those cues until they were no longer signals—only noise.

When leaders and organizations lose alignment, they lose their future.

Practicing & Navigating the Future, #13

Imagine being assigned to repair a complex machine without proper instructions. You know it should function, but you’re not sure whether the leftover screws, washers and roll of red wire are optional or the reason it doesn’t turn on. That’s what leading without foresight feels like.

Frank Diana, principal futurist at Tata Consultancy Services, argues foresight is the instruction manual for navigating the future’s chaos. Only his manual doesn’t give you a single design—it lays out multiple possibilities.

Frank Diana’s Map of the Future

Diana’s core idea is simple: stop predicting one future and start preparing for many different possibilities. He calls the method possibility chains. Picture them as dominoes. One disruption triggers another, then another. Generative AI enters the office, hiring patterns shift, training budgets move, spans of control widen, real estate needs shrink, tax bases wobble, regulations evolve. Each trigger is a link in a chain, and together they form a picture of how the future might branch.

This is what makes Diana distinct. He isn’t interested in trend lists that sit in slide decks; he’s interested in how trends connect, converge, multiply and amplify. Foresight isn’t prophecy; it’s practice. Leaders rehearse possible branches the way pilots run simulators—so when turbulence comes, muscle memory kicks in.

How Humans Learned to See the Future

If you have never read a book by or listened to a presentation by Futurist Byron Reese you have missed out.  He is a popular speaker and holds several technology patents, he has started and sold multiple companies, including two NASDAQ IPOs.  He has authored 4 books: Infinite Progress, The Fourth Age, Wasted, and his newest book that will be available in August of 2022 - Stories, Dice and Rocks that Think, and he has another in development.  
I love the work Byron does.  He is bold, deeply insightful, humble, immensely creative and shares his contagious sense of humor with all of us on the program today. Stories, Dice, and Rocks That Think: How Humans Learned to See the Future--and Shape It Learn more: https://www.amazon.com/Stories-Dice-Rocks-Think-Future/dp/1637741340/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3PODGJKLWX8FT&keywords=byron+reese&qid=1654809999&s=books&sprefix=byron+reese%2Cstripbooks%2C189&sr=1-1


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Kevin Benedict
Partner | Futurist at TCS
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***Full Disclosure: These are my personal opinions. No company is silly enough to claim them. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.

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