The core of decision-making is a three-step process: comprehending the situation, making an informed decision, and executing an action that leads to the desired outcome. The emphasis on "effect" here is crucial. It signifies the variety of tactics that can achieve the same goal. For example, in home security, a dog's bark might be as effective as its bite in warding off intruders - both strategies aiming to secure the home.
John Boyd, a renowned military strategist, introduced an expansion to this process with the OODA loop - Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act. Boyd's inclusion of "observe" highlights the importance of monitoring the outcomes of one's actions and quickly adapting to meet objectives. This becomes especially significant in situations where decisions are not clear-cut but surrounded by ambiguity and complexity. In such environments, initial insights, decisions, or actions are seldom perfect; instead, the focus is on the speed of iterating through these loops, outpacing the competition.
This principle of rapid adaptation is not confined to military strategy but is equally applicable in business, sports, and other domains. Despite thorough planning, the ability to swiftly adjust to changing realities is key. In today's competitive landscape, the ability to make quick decisions and actions is increasingly crucial, a concept that has permeated various sectors including marketing, manufacturing, logistics, and supply chains.
In his book "The Kill Chain," Christian Brose explores decision-making in combat - a high-stress, emotionally intense environment. He argues that decision-making is inherently sequential and must follow a correct order to be effective. Acting out of sequence, such as taking action before fully understanding or deciding, leads to inefficiency. Successfully completing this sequence is termed "closing the kill chain."
On the flip side, "breaking the kill chain" refers to the tactics used by adversaries to disrupt their opponents' decision-action loops. These include disinformation, attacks on communication systems, and psychological operations, all aimed at confusing the opponent and impairing their decision-making and action capabilities.
The strategic efforts in military contexts to disrupt decision-making processes highlight their vital importance in achieving objectives. However, the growing complexity and pace of decision-making are pushing the boundaries of human capabilities, suggesting a near future where machines might play a larger role in these processes. This anticipated shift, surpassing human limitations, promises to redefine the nature of competition and decision-making.
As a futurist who values historical insights, observing how strategies and decision-making paradigms have transformed in the age of technological progress is intriguing. These developments provide valuable perspectives on how leaders can adapt and excel in an increasingly intricate and fast-paced world.
*I use generative AI to assist in all my work.
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Kevin Benedict
Futurist at TCS
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***Full Disclosure: These are my personal opinions. No company is silly enough to claim them. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.
