Decision-Making, Complexity, Kill Chains and OODA

New Technologies are important, but not as important as new thinking. ~ Christian Brose

Today, it is more critical than ever for our leaders to understand how to make good decisions, fast. They must understand in a formal way what that takes. Leaders must have an optimized information logistics system that can help them gain an understanding of what is happening around them as fast as possible.  Any kind of friction that delays relevant information from being captured, transmitted, analyzed and reported hinders the ability to make decisions and act (decision-action loop).

The first step in a decision-making process is having an understanding of a situation.  The second, is to make a reasonable decision based on that understanding.  The third, is to take an action that creates an effect to achieve a desired objective.  The word "effect" is important here.  There are many different tactics or ways of doing things that can deliver the same desired result.  For example, a dog doesn't always have to bite intruders to chase them off.  Often the bark alone can deliver the desired result.

The military strategist John Boyd taught another decision making strategy called OODA, an acronym for observe, orient, decide and act.  He added "observe" as a fourth point to emphasize the need to watch the results of your action and quickly adjust to meet your objective. 

In the real world, decisions are rarely black or white.  There is a lot of ambiguity swirling around this complex world we live in.  Our initial insights, understandings, decisions and actions are rarely perfect, and that is understood.  It is about processing as quickly as possible through the OODA or decision-action loops, and making adjustments quicker than your competition.  

In business, sports or military conflicts, no matter how much you strategize and plan in advance - things will change.  What is most critical is the ability to adjust quickly to the realities on the ground. 

Increasingly businesses are also competing on speed - the speed in which decisions and actions can be made.  You see this need everywhere in business including marketing, manufacturing, logistics, supply chains and many other areas.  

In the book, "The Kill Chain" by national security expert Christian Brose, he takes a deep dive into decision making processes in combat - a highly emotional, stressful and challenging environment.  He writes it is important to understand that decision making is inherently sequential.  He believes it must be done in a correct sequence in order to be effective.  If decision-making is out of sequence like, "acting in advance of understanding and deciding, or making decisions prior to knowing what is going on," then it will be an ineffective process.  When the appropriate decision making sequence and processes are complete, it is called "closing the kill chain," in military terms. 

When opponents prevent or thwart an adversary from completing their decision-action loop successfully it is called "breaking the kill chain."  You see this when adversaries engage in disinformation campaigns, attacks on communication and internet systems, command and control structures and radar systems.  All of these attacks, plus social engineering, deep fakes, feints and misdirection are all used to confuse and "break the kill chain" of adversaries.  In other words, prevent them from understanding the situation, so they have difficulty making decisions and taking action - thus breaking their system of decision-making.  

The fact that militaries have strategies for disrupting the decision-action loops of their opponents highlights how important decision-making processes are to an organization and their ability to achieve their objectives.

In addition to the ever-present burdens of leadership, the increasing complexity and speed requirements of decision-making is rapidly pushing humans beyond their limitations.  Moving beyond human limitations changes the nature of competition.  Surpassing human limitations means we will see a lot more machines taking on a lot more decision-making responsibilities in the very near future.

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Kevin Benedict

Partner | Futurist at TCS

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***Full Disclosure: These are my personal opinions. No company is silly enough to claim them. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.