Vices and Virtues that Impact Foresight, #14

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How many of us have tried to convince another about the merits of an argument using data, facts, science, evidence and logic, only to make no progress at all.  The biases and lenses we all use to filter information changes our reality and view of the future as the following examples demonstrate.

On a frozen January afternoon in 1982, Air Florida Flight 90 sat on the runway at Washington National Airport. Snow drifted across the tarmac, visibility was low, and ice clung to the wings and engine inlets. Inside the cockpit, Captain Larry Wheaton studied the power readings with a growing sense of unease. “That doesn’t look right, does it?” he said softly—less a warning than a quiet appeal.

His first officer sensed the danger too. The instruments looked wrong. The engines felt slow. Nearby aircraft reported dangerous levels of ice. Yet both men excused their concerns, hoping the other would carry the burden of truth. Their unease grew, but neither spoke with the clarity reality demanded. Weak signals accumulated around them like snow flakes.

Moments later, Flight 90 lifted off with too little thrust. The engines stalled almost instantly, strangled by ice. The aircraft plunged into the Potomac River, killing seventy-eight people.

There was no mechanical failure.

The system did not break.

The humans did.

This cockpit was not simply a tragedy—it was a perfect illustration of moral misalignment: the quiet internal distortions that disable clear perception, distort orientation, and prevent leaders from acting on reality as it actually is. The pilots were not incompetent or malicious. They were human beings under emotional pressure, swept along by subtle vices—fear, deference, denial, avoidance, ego sensitivity. Each distortion was small. Together they made catastrophe inevitable.

Most systems do not crash into icy rivers; they drift, little by little, until the drift becomes distance. And always, misalignment destroys foresight long before it destroys anything else. Every inflection point begins with weak signals. Every future arrives with early warnings. But leaders, teams and organizations who are internally misaligned cannot adequately perceive them.

You cannot anticipate what you refuse to perceive. Let me repeat this point, “You cannot anticipate what you refuse to perceive.” Weak signals register only in systems that are aligned enough—internally clear enough—to let discomfort become information that is acted upon. 

Flight 90 was surrounded by signals: ice on the wings, abnormal power readings, sluggish acceleration, warnings from other pilots. But misalignment muffled those cues until they were no longer signals—only noise.

When leaders and organizations lose alignment, they lose their future.

Nature as the First Teacher of Alignment

To understand what true alignment looks like, let’s step outside and into a forest.

A living forest is not a collection of separate trees. It is a coherent intelligence. Beneath the soil, mycorrhizal networks shuttle nutrients and chemical messages across miles. When drought touches one part of a forest, surrounding trees adjust metabolism. When beetles descend on a branch, biochemical warnings ripple through the fungal network long before insects spread. When fire rips across a woodland, the system reorganizes instantly: fire-adapted cones explode with seeds, new shoots rise from ancient roots, nutrients stream toward regrowth.

A forest never lies to itself.
It never confuses preference with reality.
It never delays adaptation to protect ego.

Its internal processes remain aligned with external conditions. This coherence is why ecosystems endure disruptions that routinely shatter human institutions.

Where forests adapt instinctively, humans adapt reluctantly.
Where forests treat signals as information, human systems treat signals as threats.
Where forests reorganize rapidly, human organizations cling to old identity.
Forests thrive because their internal logic matches the external world.
Human systems collapse when those worlds diverge.

The Anatomy of Moral Misalignment

Moral misalignment arises when internal emotional forces distort perception and orientation. These forces—fear, ego, denial, avoidance, tribalism, short-termism—are universal human tendencies. They are not dramatic; they are subtle. But when amplified by power, stress, complexity, or acceleration, they become fatal.

The following vices are the nine most consistent and destructive misalignments in human systems. History shows exactly how each one behaves.

1. Short-Termism → The South Sea Bubble (1720)
London in 1720 pulsed with speculative fever. Coffeehouses—crowded, smoky, and loud with argument—became command centers of fantasy. Brokers shouted rumors over the clatter of tankards. Pamphleteers promised “boundless opportunity across the seas.” Newspapers ran glowing articles quietly paid for by company insiders. Aristocrats and chimney sweeps alike crowded around chalkboards listing the day’s rising share prices.

The South Sea Company had no substantial trade, no proven revenue, and no realistic path to the empire it advertised. But it offered something more intoxicating than business plans: the illusion of effortless wealth. Shares vaulted from £100 to £1,000 in months. Families mortgaged ancestral estates. Servants pooled wages. London pawnbrokers ran out of silverware.

Even Isaac Newton, whose mind bent the universe to mathematics, was drawn in. He bought early, sold prudently, then—unable to resist the contagion of enthusiasm—bought back in as prices soared. When the bubble burst, fortunes evaporated like mist. Parliamentarians were mobbed in the streets. Bankers fled the city. Newton, devastated, uttered the line that endures as a eulogy for human short-termism:
“I can calculate the motions of the heavens, but not the madness of men.”
Short-termism clouds foresight, then wealth, then the social trust needed for any future at all.

2. Tribal Mind → The Partition of India (1947)
In the summer heat of 1947, as the British rushed their exit from India, entire villages gathered around radios to hear news of borders drawn by Sir Cyril Radcliffe, a man who had never visited the subcontinent. The lines carved through rivers, fields, and centuries-old communities—splitting temples from towns, families from ancestral land, neighbors from neighbors.

Fear spread with lethal speed. Rumors—“Hindu mobs are marching,” “Muslims poisoning wells,” “Sikhs planning reprisals”—moved faster than trains. In Lahore, people painted “H” or “M” on their doors so refugees would know whether to knock or flee. Streets that had once held shared festivals now echoed with the sound of barricading furniture and shouted warnings.

Refugee trains left stations overcrowded, desperate, and silent with dread. Many never arrived. On some, every passenger was massacred by rival militias; the trains rolled into stations carrying only corpses.

Fourteen to fifteen million people fled across Radcliffe’s arbitrary lines. Nearly a million died.
Tribalism overwhelms perception, replacing nuance with existential simplicity: us or them, safety or annihilation. In such conditions, adaptation becomes impossible.

3. Ego Rigidity → Admiral Halsey’s Typhoon (1944)
In December 1944, the Pacific shimmered deceptively calm as Admiral William “Bull” Halsey—legendary for boldness—refused to alter course despite meteorologists’ warnings of a forming typhoon. He believed his fleet could outrun the storm. His conviction was absolute. Reality disagreed.

Winds howled at 100 knots. Aircraft carriers rolled nearly onto their sides; planes tore from their moorings and skidded across decks before tumbling into the sea. Destroyers—light, fuel-poor, and powerless against towering waves—fought to keep their bows into the wind. Three of them failed. USS Hull, Spence, and Monaghan capsized, flipping like toys in a child’s bath. Hundreds of sailors were swallowed by the storm, many trapped behind watertight doors.

Survivors recalled looking up at waves “like mountains of iron and water, moving with intention.”

The subsequent inquiry was blunt: the losses were avoidable.

Ego rigidity turns expertise into arrogance—blindness wearing medals.

A leader who cannot update their model cannot lead through uncertainty, nor perceive emerging futures.

4. Power Hunger → The Congo Free State (1885–1908)
King Leopold II never set foot in the Congo, yet his reach was everywhere. His private empire ran on force, rubber quotas, and an unimaginable system of coercion. Villages that missed production targets were burned. Soldiers were required to prove discipline by presenting severed right hands—catastrophically incentivizing mutilation. People fled deeper into the forest to escape terror.

Missionaries described towns where every hut was empty, save for a few elderly people too weak to run. Journalists photographed children missing hands, women held hostage to compel husbands, skeletal corpses hanging from trees as warnings.

The Congo Free State became the world’s first fully integrated extraction system: riverboats, telegraphs, guns, quotas, and global rubber markets—all optimized through violence and torture.

Historians estimate that 10 million Congolese died.

When power is not accountable and transparent it becomes predatory.

When efficiency is divorced from ethics, misalignment becomes scaled - industrial even.

5. Denial & Self-Deception → The Challenger Disaster (1986)

The night before the launch, engineers at Morton Thiokol pleaded with NASA managers: the cold weather threatened the O-rings. “We’re risking the crew,” one warned. Outside the conference room, Florida’s launchpad was coated in frost.

But NASA needed the launch. Schoolchildren nationwide were preparing to watch teacher Christa McAuliffe go to space. Public relations mattered. Schedules mattered. Budgets mattered. So managers reframed risk as manageable, citing “insufficient evidence” of danger—even though the absence of testing in cold weather was itself damning.

Thiokol management, under immense pressure, reversed their engineers’ recommendation.

At 11:38 a.m. the next morning, Challenger ascended into a blue winter sky. Seventy-three seconds later, it disintegrated in a white explosion of smoke and fire over the Atlantic.

The Rogers Commission would later write that NASA had succumbed to a “normalization of deviance”—a pattern where small anomalies are repeatedly ignored until tragedy becomes inevitable.

Denial destroys the sensing layer before it destroys anything physical.

6. Comfort Addiction → The Ming Dynasty Withdrawal (1433)
In the early 15th century, China commanded the greatest navy the world had ever seen: treasure ships—massive vessels four times the length of European caravels—sailed under Admiral Zheng He to East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. They brought back diplomats, giraffes, spices, knowledge, and maps. China stood at the threshold of becoming a global maritime power.

Then the bureaucracy retreated.

Court officials, alarmed by costs and foreign influence, argued that stability mattered more than discovery. They cut funding. Shipyards were dismantled. Logs, plans, and navigational charts were burned. Large ocean-going ships were outlawed. China turned inward, choosing comfort, predictability, and agrarian order over exploration.

A century later, small European ships—fragile, risky, daring—circled the globe.
China, with its vast resources and unmatched technological lead, had abandoned the future.

Comfort is the quietest vice. It convinces peoples and organizations to retreat and shrink themselves voluntarily.

7. Envy & Status Obsession → The Gilded Age Mansion Wars (1870–1910)
In New York’s Gilded Age, the wealthy waged architectural warfare. Fifth Avenue glittered with mansions whose ballrooms could fit hundreds, whose ceilings were covered in imported frescoes, whose staircases were carved from Italian marble. Summer “cottages” in Newport dwarfed European palaces. At one Vanderbilt ball, guests waltzed under a ceiling of gold leaf while servants rushed champagne to 1,000 attendees in gowns sewn with diamonds.

These displays were not celebrations—they were weapons. Every new mansion was an ornamental declaration of superiority.

Meanwhile, steelworkers labored twelve-hour shifts for pennies. Immigrants crowded into tenements lit by a single candle. Journalists published exposés titled “Poverty in the Shadow of Palaces.” Fury grew. Eventually, the spectacle helped catalyze the Progressive movement—trust-busting, taxation, labor reform.

Status obsession distorts organizational priorities, and neglects the “common good”.

Systems that elevate display over substance lose legitimacy and fracture.

8. Moral Laziness → The My Lai Massacre (1968)
On the morning of March 16, 1968, soldiers of Charlie Company entered the village of My Lai expecting Viet Cong fighters. Instead, they found women cooking breakfast, children eating, elderly people tending gardens.

Frustration turned to violence. Soldiers began shooting indiscriminately. Some forced villagers into ditches and opened fire. Homes were torched. Survivors were assaulted. Officers issued no clear orders. Soldiers deferred judgment to the momentum of the moment.

Helicopter pilot Hugh Thompson, flying overhead, was horrified. He landed his aircraft between U.S. troops and the remaining villagers and ordered his crew to point their guns on American soldiers if they continued killing. His intervention saved dozens—but he was vilified for years.

Moral laziness is not stupidity. It is the surrender of responsibility.

9. Fear → The Salem Witch Trials (1692)
The winter of 1692 in Salem Village crackled with fear. Young girls writhed in fits that no doctor could explain. Ministers spoke of “the invisible world.” Neighbors whispered accusations. Livestock wandered untended. Entire families packed belongings in case suspicion turned toward them.

Courts accepted “spectral evidence”—visions, dreams, feelings—as truth. Anyone who questioned the madness risked being accused next. Giles Corey, pressed under stones for refusing to enter a plea, gasped “More weight,” refusing to legitimize the court.

By autumn, the panic burned itself out. Judges confessed error. Clergy apologized. The colony called for a day of fasting and repentance.

Fear is a solvent. It dissolves judgment, empathy, nuance, and trust.

A society in a fear loop loses the ability to sense reality.

These Vices Destroy Foresight

Each of these misalignments damages the sensing layer leaders need to see tomorrow:

Short-termism reduces the time horizons you can perceive.
Tribal mind narrows what you see, and want to see.
Ego rigidity filters contradictory evidence.
Power hunger removes transparency, and filters truth through motives.
Denial downgrades warnings, and fails to act.
Comfort addiction suppresses exploration and future opportunities.
Status obsession distorts priorities and forgets the “common good”.
Moral laziness removes critical thinking, and looks for simple answers and others to blame.
Fear overwhelms discernment, finds excuses, and honors the status quo. 

Foresight fails long before systems visibly break.

Misalignment is not an ethical flaw—it is an operational failure.

Adaptation requires clear orientation; misalignment corrupts it.

How Misalignment Breaks Adaptation

Neuroscience shows fear shrinks cognitive flexibility. Behavioral economics shows ego biases decision-making. Complexity science shows denial disrupts sensing. Sociology shows tribalism fractures trust in others. Organizational studies show short-term incentives destroy long-term resilience.

Misalignment first disrupts perception, then orientation, then decision, then action.

Systems do not die when they break.They die when they stop accurately sensing and interpreting.

How Alignment Restores Adaptation

The counterforce to moral misalignment is not moral perfection but internal coherence. Alignment begins with leaders and organizations willing to confront reality without distortion. It grows when teams create psychological safety. It becomes cultural when incentives reward truth over comfort.

Aligned systems regain foresight.
Weak signals regain meaning.
People speak early warnings aloud.
Leaders update their models.
Organizations regenerate after disruption—like forests after fire.
The future becomes visible again.

Moral Alignment as the Foundation of Polyintelligence

Polyintelligence integrates human, machine, and ecological intelligence. But machines cannot overcome ego. Data cannot correct denial. AI cannot force leaders to see what they prefer to ignore. Nature sends signals but cannot make organizations listen.

Without moral alignment, polyintelligence collapses into a high-speed version of misalignment—more data, faster confusion, catastrophic failure.

With moral alignment, however, sensing becomes clearer, orientation sharper, decisions more coherent. The system gains the regenerative intelligence ecosystems demonstrate naturally.

The future will not belong to systems with the most data, the fastest AI, or the most funds. It will belong to systems with the cleanest orientation, the strongest coherence, and the courage to see.

Adaptation begins with alignment.

Moral misalignment is not simply a character flaw—it is a structural breakdown of perception. It destroys foresight, fractures trust, and collapses the sensing layer upon which all adaptation depends. Alignment restores that layer, sharpening awareness and widening time horizons. But sensing alone is not enough. In a world defined by acceleration, leaders must also convert perception into coherent action.

If this chapter revealed why internal coherence determines survival, my next article explores how adaptive systems actually function: how sensing becomes orientation, how orientation becomes decision, and how leaders build loops capable of keeping pace with accelerating reality.

*I use AI in all my work.
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Kevin Benedict
Futurist, and Lecturer at TCS
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***Full Disclosure: These are my personal opinions. No company is silly enough to claim them. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.

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