Technology is giving life the potential to flourish like never before - or to self-destruct. ~ Future of Life Institute
As Russian military forces invaded the Ukraine in an unconscionable act of violence and devastation, their armies of social media operators joined in and were deployed to the internet to digitally influence the opinions and will of the world watching in horror. The goal of these operators was to influence their own people to support their aggressions through disinformation, while demoralizing their adversaries, and confusing a worldwide audience with disinformation to prevent them from acting or interfering.
Kyle Chayka recently wrote in the New Yorker, “the invasion of Ukraine is by no means the first conflict to play out over social media, but it is perhaps the first war to be mediated primarily by content creators and live-streamers rather than by traditional news organizations.” Because social media operators are now the major source of news for many if not most, this has become a hugely important and strategic digital battlefield.
The renowned military strategist John Boyd taught that the ultimate objective of an army is not to kill more enemy on the battlefield, but rather to create mental chaos, disorder, ambiguity, confusion, distrust and morale collapse in the mind of an enemy so they lose the capability and will to continue. Today, the go-to strategy for accomplishing these goals is to use disinformation and social engineering campaigns on social media platforms.
The role of social media in war cannot be underestimated. Napoleon is quoted as saying, “An army marches on its stomach.” Today, however, it seems armies march both on their stomachs, and on the “will of the people” which can be influenced through social media. The “people” consist of all whose opinions can influence critical decision-making and actions. That is why Russia and their supporters have so aggressively employed social media campaigns and social engineering operations to achieve their objectives and influence them. In the context of this conflict there are three main groups of people whose opinions are critical to Russia, their own citizens, the citizens of the Ukraine, and the world’s. According to the Washington Post, the Russians are succeeding at winning the social media battle with only one of these groups – their own citizens.
The challenge for any entity using social media as a pillar of a military strategy is that social media and the views expressed there are hard to control. Just today, March 11, 2022, Russia started blocking Meta’s Facebook and Instagram because these platforms were effectively blocking the disinformation campaigns of Russia and amplifying the opinions of the opposition. If Russia could not use these platforms to, “win the hearts and minds” of their targeted audiences then they wanted them shut-down.
Historically, war has been conducted to compel a positive political outcome for the victor. This is accomplished by diminishing an adversary’s will or resolve to fight. If Russia loses the social media battle and along with it the ability to influence and manipulate the will of the people, they risk strategic failure. Decades ago, Boyd prophetically wrote, "Failing to achieve moral victory may result in strategic defeat even if an army is victorious in all of their tactical, physical battles."
In military circles there is a term, "Effects-Based Operations," which means that success in conflict should be measured by results, not by destruction. In other words, did a given action compel a positive political outcome? The ultimate victor will be the one with a stronger will and moral position. What can be a stronger moral position than that of desiring peace?
Kevin Benedict
Partner | Futurist at TCS
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***Full Disclosure: These are my personal opinions. No company is silly enough to claim them. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.
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