Microsoft, Free Software and Enterprise Mobility

Three years ago, Microsoft's Windows Mobile dominated the world of mobility.  Thirty-six months later they have disappeared from consumer mobility and are fighting to defend their last foothold in enterprise mobility.  How could a company as successful and technologically astute as Microsoft fail so completely in a market as large and important as mobility?  They roared right past Palm with their marketing power a few years ago but then they seem to have taken a sabbatical.

In the July 5th edition of The New York Times, Ashlee Vance wrote an article entitled, Microsoft Calling. Anyone There?  In this article she writes that one of the key challenges Microsoft faces is attracting young developers.  Vance writes that young cash strapped entrepreneurs are working with free or low cost software from places like Google's Android and Apple.  They are avoiding expensive developer licenses that Microsoft often requires.  The hip young developer community doesn't even consider Microsoft when looking to develop cool new mobile software applications.  They don't believe it has market potential worth pursuing.

Microsoft is striking out on just about every attempt in mobility.  Not only have they lost incredible market share, but they bought mobile phone designer, Danger, released a mobile phone designed for social networking called Kin, and then canceled it after only eight weeks.

Albert Einstein is quoted as saying, "A problem cannot be solved with the same thinking that created it."  I think Microsoft needs a new spin-off company that focuses on mobility.  It is painfully clear that the Microsoft of old is struggling in the mobility arena.  It is not just their mobile technology but their business model.  If young developers are focusing on developing applications with free software from Apple and Android and looking to make innovative applications for tens of millions of users, then Microsoft must have a solution for them if they want to be a contender.

A spin-off strategy is not new for technology companies.  Motorola announced this week that they are splitting their company into two separate entities the first quarter of 2011.  They are splitting the company into a consumer company and a company focused on enterprise mobility.  The purpose is to focus.  Focus on what it takes for each group to be successful.

Organizational changes are very interesting to me.  I have seen market leaders like Palm, Microsoft, GM and others simply lose their ability to compete.  Today, a company can go from market leader to after thought in a few months.  What makes the difference?  Is it luck or strategy?

Microsoft is making another attempt to jump back into mobility now with their new strategy that is summarized nicely in Gil Bouhnick's blog article: 
http://clicksoftware-mobilefever.blogspot.com/2010/06/microsoft-announces-windows-embedded.html.  It will be very interesting to see if they can right the ship.

I am serious when I say that the chaos therory, and the study of how ice crystals grow may be useful in understanding how to manage and build a mobile technology company nowadays.  Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, physics, economics and philosophy studying the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. This sensitivity is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect.

The phrase, butterfly effect, refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado or delay, accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of a tornado in a certain location. The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale alterations of events (compare: domino effect). Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different. While the butterfly does not "cause" the tornado in the sense of providing the energy for the tornado, it does "cause" it in the sense that the flap of its wings is an essential part of the initial conditions resulting in a tornado, and without that flap that particular tornado would not have existed (source Wikipedia).

Read the latest enterprise mobility news at  http://mobileenterprisestrategies.blogspot.com/p/kevins-mobility-news-weekly.html.



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Kevin Benedict, SAP Mentor, SAP Top Contributor, Mobile and M2M Industry Analyst
CEO/Principal Consultant, Netcentric Strategies LLC
http://www.netcentric-strategies.com/
www.linkedin.com/in/kevinbenedict
http://twitter.com/krbenedict
***Full Disclosure: I am an independent mobility consultant and Web 2.0 marketing expert. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.
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M2M - Tomatoes, Fisherman and Drug Addicts

A good friend sent me an article over the holiday weekend about a tomato watering system that was set up to tweet whenever it needed more water.  I like it!  It contains a moisture sensor connected to a embedded wireless device.  It is a silly little proof of concept, but it helps us to understand how many unique applications there are for M2M systems.

In the July 5th edition of the New York Times there is an article, Circuitry With a Feel for Humanity by Amy Harmon.  The article states that doctors at the University of Massachusetts are testing a wearable sensor designed to be worn by drug addicts.  The wearable sensor discerns drug cravings in addicts and sends, using an M2M system, text messages with just the right blend of tough love.

I read another article a few weeks ago about students at a school in Africa who developed an M2M system to help local fisherman know when there were fish available to catch.  Sensors, connected to simple M2M systems sent text messages to all subscribed fisherman.

All of these articles demonstrate innovative thinking in the M2M arena.  The uses for M2M systems are nearly unlimited.  It will be fascinating to watch how this market develops.

• Read Kevin's M2M News Weekly for a summary of events and market numbers in the M2M market. 
• Read Kevin's Mobility News Weekly for a summary of events and market numbers in the enterprise mobility market.

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Kevin Benedict, SAP Mentor, SAP Top Contributor, Mobile and M2M Industry Analyst
CEO/Principal Consultant, Netcentric Strategies LLC
http://www.netcentric-strategies.com/
www.linkedin.com/in/kevinbenedict
http://twitter.com/krbenedict
***Full Disclosure: I am an independent mobility consultant and Web 2.0 marketing expert. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.
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The Stylus, Proof of Delivery and Windows Embedded Mobile

I was interviewing Gil Bouhnick, Director of Mobile Solutions with ClickSoftware, an SAP mobility partner, today about their new version of ClickMobile 8.1.1.  In the course of our interview he mentioned the stylus.  Remember the stylus?  The handy little hard plastic faux pen used to write on the screen of PDAs, handheld computers and smartphones.  They remain important to many field service processes today as we will discuss in a moment.

Gil and I were discussing the differences between mobile consumer and industrial grade devices.  He mentioned that in most mobile proof-of-delivery projects that he works on, the customer requires a signature from the recipient.  The signature is often captured as a digital signature by using a stylus and writing on the screen.  It occurred to me that most smartphones no longer have this feature.  As a result, smartphones without styluses will not be used in these business processes. 

Windows Mobile (and the next Windows Embedded Handheld OS) lets you capture a digital signature, draw on the screen, use radio buttons, check boxes and other onscreen tools to input data.  Not being able to use these features would be a big problem for many service technicians and delivery folks that use rugged handhelds in their work today.  That is why I am so interested in Microsoft's recent announcement regarding their Windows Phone 7 and Windows Embedded Handheld strategy.  Gil wrote an article summarizing many of the recent announcements by Microsoft on their mobility strategy, http://clicksoftware-mobilefever.blogspot.com/2010/06/microsoft-announces-windows-embedded.html.

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Kevin Benedict, SAP Mentor, SAP Top Contributor, Mobile and M2M Industry Analyst
CEO/Principal Consultant, Netcentric Strategies LLC
http://www.netcentric-strategies.com/
www.linkedin.com/in/kevinbenedict
http://twitter.com/krbenedict
***Full Disclosure: I am an independent mobility consultant and Web 2.0 marketing expert. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.
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Kevin's Mobility News Weekly - July 1, 2010

Kevin's Mobility News Weekly is an online newsletter that is made up of the most interesting news and articles related to enterprise mobility that I run across each week. I aggregate the information, include the original links and add a synopsis of each article. I also search for the latest market numbers such as market size, growth and trends in and around enterprise mobility.

You can read archived newsletters here - http://mobileenterprisestrategies.blogspot.com/p/kevins-mobility-news-weekly.html

Also you may find Kevin’s M2M News Weekly on the subjects of M2M (machine-to-machine) and the mobile embedded device market of interest.

http://mobileenterprisestrategies.blogspot.com/p/m2m.html

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One hundred and fifty million is the number of Windows 7 licenses sold, making Windows 7 by far the fastest growing operating system in history. What Microsoft really means is while their rivals are getting all the hype in the press, and people keep blogging about them “dying”, they are selling 7 copies of their OS every second.

http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/26/microsoft-numbers/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Techcrunch+%28TechCrunch%29

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According to VDC Research's latest report, the market for mobility solutions for national government applications (in military and national/federal programs) is expected to rebound modestly through 2010, despite the growing pressures from budget cuts and restraints.

http://www.fieldtechnologiesonline.com/article.mvc/Market-For-Mobility-Solutions-For-National-0001?user=2373698&source=nl:27924&VNETCOOKIE=NO

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Twitter COO Dick Costolo said they are currently at 190 million users, who are collectively posting some 65 million tweets per day. And last April, Twitter’s lead engineer for its International team, Matt Sanford, said over 60% of registered Twitter accounts were already coming from outside U.S. borders.

http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/23/twitter-international-growth/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Techcrunch+%28TechCrunch%29

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iPhone App Store economics analysis - in the calendar year 2008 the total downloads were 600 million and revenues of $172 million. In calendar year 2009 the total downloads were 2.4 billion and total revenues of $686 million. In calendar year 2010 so far (half year) we've seen 2 billion downloads and $542 million in revenues.

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2010/06/full-analysis-of-iphone-economics-its-bad-news-and-then-it-gets-worse.html

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ClickSoftware is an SAP mobility partner and the leading provider of automated workforce management and optimization solutions for every size of service business. This newsletter is sponsored in part by ClickSoftware.

http://www.clicksoftware.com/

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Apple said it sold 1.7 million iPhone 4s in the first three days of its launch.

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/apple-blows-past-record-sells-1-7-million-iphone-4s-debut/2010-06-28?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal

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Analyst Avi Greengart recently stated, “The scale of the content ecosystem Apple has created, coupled with the functionality, style and buzz of the iPhone, has sparked a virtuous cycle for application developers, customers and, ultimately, Apple.” Just witness the 1.7 million iPhone 4s Apple sold at launch.

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/android-iphone-and-coming-smartphone-shakeout/2010-06-25?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal#ixzz0sGVlhj4H

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Speculation on a Verizon iPhone has been rampant in the tech blogosphere. If the reports are true (about a January date for Verizon selling the iPhone), then it will give Verizon a boost in its smartphone competition, UBS analyst John Hodulik says. Verizon customers, who numbered 92.8 million at the end of the first quarter, may buy 3 million iPhones a quarter, he says.

http://iphone.usatoday.com/News/1835712/full/

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Cisco announced that in 2011 it will launch an Android-based tablet, named the Cius, aimed squarely at the business market.

http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2010/06/cisco-announces-the-cius-the-blackberry-of-tablets/

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Gil Bouhnick, Director of Mobile Solutions at ClickSoftware, updates us all on the new Windows Phone 7 and Windows Embedded Handheld operating systems.

http://clicksoftware-mobilefever.blogspot.com/2010/06/microsoft-announces-windows-embedded.html

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60% of iPads are used by business professionals for both work and home use. Thus, Cius could easily eat up iPad market share. With the Cius sporting the front-facing camera, which the iPad doesn't, the Cius could easily crack into that 60% market share due to the telepresence / HD video capabilities. Add in the growing popularity of the Android community and apps, and Cisco could have a winner on its hands.

http://blog.tmcnet.com/blog/tom-keating/cisco/cisco-cius-hd-android-tablet.asp

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Want to locate the nearest U.S. embassy, send an e-greeting or retrieve federal disaster information on your iPhone, BlackBerry or Android mobile device? The White House has published a list of 111 mobile applications sponsored by government agencies.

http://fcw.com/blogs/gov-2/2010/06/usagov-publishes-government-mobile-apps-list.aspx

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Gartner's new and complete 2010 Gartner Field Service Management Magic Quadrant report can be found, compliments of ClickSoftware, at the following URL – http://www.clicksoftware.com/Gartner.

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The Western European mobile phone market grew 8.1% year on year to 42.7 million units in 1Q10, according to IDC's European Mobile Phone Tracker. Shipments of smartphones surged in the quarter to 12 million units, 57% higher than in last year's first quarter, to represent 28% of total shipments. Traditional mobile phones (TMPs) declined 4% year on year to 30.7 million units, showing the continuous trend toward smartphones.

http://www.cellular-news.com/story/44052.php?source=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cellular-news%2FLmiX+%28cellular-news%29

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A new report from ABI Research indicates that by the end of 2010, there will be 5 billion mobile subscribers worldwide. By the end of first quarter there were around 4.8 billion connections worldwide. Much of this growth will come from developing markets in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/abi-5-billion-mobile-subscribers-end-year/2010-06-30

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Following last week's release of the new iPhone 4, Apple quietly added a new section to its App Store virtual storefront reserved exclusively for iPhone and iPod touch applications powered by the new iOS 4 operating system. As of 5 a.m. ET Tuesday, there are 48 applications featured under the heading Awesome iOS 4 Apps, including social networking services Twitter and Loopt, navigation solution TomTom USA and music app Pandora Radio.

http://www.fiercedeveloper.com/story/apple-adds-ios-4-application-section-app-store/2010-06-28

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90 percent of developers say they are very interested in creating applications for the iPhone, 84 percent express comparable enthusiasm for the iPad and 81 percent are casting their lot with Android. What is surprising is just how little interest developers express for rival smartphone platforms like BlackBerry, Windows Phone 7, Symbian, webOS and MeeGo.

http://www.fiercedeveloper.com/story/iphone-still-dominates-developer-focus-android-gaining-fast/2010-06-28

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The following three articles that I wrote this week discuss what I learned about mobility at Sapphire 2010 and what I think it means to enterprise mobility vendors and SAP customers.

What I Learned About Mobility at Sapphire, Part 1
What I Learned About Mobility at Sapphire, Part 2
What I Learned About Mobility at Sapphire, Part 3

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To attract programmers to its Android operating system, Google may offer tools that help them sell subscriptions, virtual goods, and other items from within applications on mobile phones, Andy Rubin, vice-president of engineering at Google, says in an interview.

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jun2010/tc20100629_585738.htm

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The following links are interviews that I have conducted over the past few months with enterprise mobility experts and CEOs.

Mobile Expert Interview Series:

http://mobileenterprisestrategies.blogspot.com/p/mobile-expert-interview-series.html

Mobile Expert Video Series:

http://mobileenterprisestrategies.blogspot.com/p/mobile-expert-video-series.html

Kevin’s Mobility News Weekly archives can be found at:

http://mobileenterprisestrategies.blogspot.com/p/kevins-mobility-news-weekly.html.

I would invite those interested in enterprise mobility to join the Linkedin Group SAP Enterprise Mobility, http://www.linkedin.com/groups?about=&gid=2823585&trk=anet_ug_grppro.

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Kevin Benedict, SAP Mentor, SAP Top Contributor, Mobile and M2M Industry Analyst
CEO/Principal Consultant, Netcentric Strategies LLC
http://www.netcentric-strategies.com/
www.linkedin.com/in/kevinbenedict
http://twitter.com/krbenedict
***Full Disclosure: I am an independent mobility consultant and Web 2.0 marketing expert. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.
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What I Learned about Mobility at Sapphire 2010, Part 3

I expect to see a lot of battles between mobility vendors and Sybase. Although mobility vendors publicly play nice, there is a lot of competition for this fast growing market. Sybase brings a lot of capabilities to the table. They will not be satisfied being a mobile middleware player (see Sybase and Field Services). I expect them to start releasing their own libraries of mobile applications for the largest markets, and use their inside knowledge of SAP sales leads and accounts to aggressively go after them.

Having Sybase develop and sell mobile applications has always been a problem.  Sybase OEMs (used as a verb) their middleware to hundreds of software companies, and they have always hesitated to compete with their customers.  It will be interesting to see if they can resist this temptation when the entire SAP user base is available to them.  My guess is Sybase will not resist.  As a result, SAP mobility partners will need to dig deeper into industries and niche markets to defend and grow their positions.

How does the SAP mobility partner trust partnering with Sybase on mobile middleware, when they are also competing on mobile applications?  It will be interesting.

I believe Sybase will be swamped with sales leads for custom mobile applications. There is a backlog of demand.  The problem, however, is that Sybase has traditionally staffed a very small professional services group that has little industry knowledge. That should mean more work for trained systems integrators.  Pay attention SIs!!!

Now that the mobile integration strategy for working in SAP environments is becoming clearer, mobile application vendors need to start developing rapid application development tools specifically for mobilizing SAP. Seriously! You should be able to develop screen layouts for the various mobile OS environments, and drag and drop database fields from SAP into the mobile client. All the coding behind the scenes should be automated.  Vendors should have a one year grace period and then no excuses.

I have a lot of experience in the mobile software development tools area and can say with authority that developing RAD (rapid application development tools) is difficult. However, if you already know the data source and the required fields for a business process, then it can be a lot easier. Simplicity is good. I challenged Sybase for years to develop a RAD tool and have yet to see one that a business analyst can use.

The bottom line - SAP mobility partners can stop focusing on mobile middleware (leave it to SAP/Sybase) and focus more on becoming industry and business process experts. Increasingly, the value they offer will be in developing mobile applications with deep industry and process expertise. They should be looking at all the various business processes and SAP industry business units (around 28 the last I checked) and identify the verticals where there are the most opportunities and where deep industry knowledge can help them develop defensible market positions.

Here are a few examples:

• Hazardous waste and chemical management
• CPG food/meat processing inspections
• Mobile animal lifecycle tracking applications (beef, dairy, chicken, hog, etc)
• Mobile insurance claims
• Mobile healthcare applications
• Mobile eldercare applications
• Mobile chronic disease management applications
• Mobile oil and gas pipeline inspections
• Mobile disaster relief applications
• Mobile damage assessment applications
• Mobile facility and security management applications
• Mobile applications for customers of SAP customers and their markets (retail apps, marketing apps, etc.)
• etc.

I am throwing around a lot of opinions here, so please share your comments and views as well! We can figure this all out together.

* What I Learned About Mobility at Sapphire 2010, Part 1
* What I Learned About Mobility at Sapphire 2010, Part 2

*Read the latest news and market numbers on enterprise mobility at Mobility News Weekly.

*Join the Linkedin Group, SAP Enterprise Mobility, it has over 750 members now.

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Kevin Benedict, SAP Mentor, SAP Top Contributor, Mobile and M2M Industry Analyst
CEO/Principal Consultant, Netcentric Strategies LLC
http://www.netcentric-strategies.com/
www.linkedin.com/in/kevinbenedict
http://twitter.com/krbenedict
***Full Disclosure: I am an independent mobility consultant and Web 2.0 marketing expert. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.
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