Thursday, December 15, 2016

New Report: 40 Months of Hyper-Digital Transformation

  • Digital leaders think and act differently.
  • Digital leaders recognize that digital transformation is the key to their future relevance and success, and they act as though their lives depend on getting transformation right.
  • Recognition alone is not enough, though. Digital leaders also execute the right actions and technologies in the right sequences to successfully navigate resource constraints.
  • Digital technologies are the keys that unlock a golden door.
  1. Virtual Moves to Real in with Sensors and Digital Transformation
  2. Technology Must Disappear in 2017
  3. Merging Humans with AI and Machine Learning Systems
  4. In Defense of the Human Experience in a Digital World
  5. Profits that Kill in the Age of Digital Transformation
  6. Competing in Future Time and Digital Transformation
  7. Digital Hope and Redemption in the Digital Age
  8. Digital Transformation and the Role of Faster
  9. Digital Transformation and the Law of Thermodynamics
  10. Jettison the Heavy Baggage and Digitally Tranform
  11. Digital Transformation - The Dark Side
  12. Business is Not as Usual in Digital Transformation
  13. 15 Rules for Winning in Digital Transformation
  14. The End Goal of Digital Transformation
  15. Digital Transformation and the Ignorance Penalty
  16. Surviving the Three Ages of Digital Transformation
  17. From Digital to Hyper-Transformation
  18. Believers, Non-Believers and Digital Transformation
  19. Forces Driving the Digital Transformation Era
  20. Digital Transformation Requires Agility and Energy Measurement
  21. A Doctrine for Digital Transformation is Required
  22. The Advantages of Advantage in Digital Transformation
  23. Digital Transformation and Its Role in Mobility and Competition
  24. Digital Transformation - A Revolution in Precision Through IoT, Analytics and Mobility
  25. Competing in Digital Transformation and Mobility
  26. Ambiguity and Digital Transformation
  27. Digital Transformation and Mobility - Macro-Forces and Timing
  28. Mobile and IoT Technologies are Inside the Curve of Human Time
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Kevin Benedict
Senior Analyst, Center for the Future of Work, Cognizant Writer, Speaker and World Traveler
View my profile on LinkedIn
Follow me on Twitter @krbenedict
Subscribe to Kevin'sYouTube Channel
Join the Linkedin Group Strategic Enterprise Mobility
Join the Google+ Community Mobile Enterprise Strategies

***Full Disclosure: These are my personal opinions. No company is silly enough to claim them. I am a mobility and digital transformation analyst, consultant and writer. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.

Wednesday, December 07, 2016

Virtual Reality Moves to Real with Sensors and Digital Transformation

  1. Technology Must Disappear in 2017
  2. Merging Humans with AI and Machine Learning Systems
  3. In Defense of the Human Experience in a Digital World
  4. Profits that Kill in the Age of Digital Transformation
  5. Competing in Future Time and Digital Transformation
  6. Digital Hope and Redemption in the Digital Age
  7. Digital Transformation and the Role of Faster
  8. Digital Transformation and the Law of Thermodynamics
  9. Jettison the Heavy Baggage and Digitally Tranform
  10. Digital Transformation - The Dark Side
  11. Business is Not as Usual in Digital Transformation
  12. 15 Rules for Winning in Digital Transformation
  13. The End Goal of Digital Transformation
  14. Digital Transformation and the Ignorance Penalty
  15. Surviving the Three Ages of Digital Transformation
  16. From Digital to Hyper-Transformation
  17. Believers, Non-Believers and Digital Transformation
  18. Forces Driving the Digital Transformation Era
  19. Digital Transformation Requires Agility and Energy Measurement
  20. A Doctrine for Digital Transformation is Required
  21. The Advantages of Advantage in Digital Transformation
  22. Digital Transformation and Its Role in Mobility and Competition
  23. Digital Transformation - A Revolution in Precision Through IoT, Analytics and Mobility
  24. Competing in Digital Transformation and Mobility
  25. Ambiguity and Digital Transformation
  26. Digital Transformation and Mobility - Macro-Forces and Timing
  27. Mobile and IoT Technologies are Inside the Curve of Human Time
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Kevin Benedict
Senior Analyst, Center for the Future of Work, Cognizant Writer, Speaker and World Traveler
View my profile on LinkedIn
Follow me on Twitter @krbenedict
Subscribe to Kevin's YouTube Channel
Join the Linkedin Group Strategic Enterprise Mobility
Join the Google+ Community Mobile Enterprise Strategies

***Full Disclosure: These are my personal opinions. No company is silly enough to claim them. I am a mobility and digital transformation analyst, consultant and writer. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

How Good is Your Mind at Predicting?

My friend, Peter Rogers, who lives in the UK was wrong at predicting Brexit, but right at predicting Donald Trump would win.  How did he get one wrong and the other right?  Read about his experiences here.

Guest Blogger - Peter Rogers
Peter Rogers Predicted Donald Trump

I always thought I was particularly good at prediction as a result of me working as a technologist most of my life, but my world was turned upside down after Brexit. It took a long time for me to work out why I got Brexit so wrong, but eventually I brushed myself off and started to read a lot of material on Super-Forecasters.

It learned I had been misleading myself for many years.  I thought I was good at non-technical decision-making. I recall looking at the Ladbrokes Swingometer for Brexit and being so sure of a "remain" vote, that I was going to place a large bet.  I was however, wrong. I made the classic mistake of polluting the decision-maker-mindset.

In order to forecast accurately I needed to consider a wide range of diverse opinions without being overly drawn to any one particular source. This of course, is where social media makes fools of us all. We are typically drawn to a small group of close friends for inspiration, and these friends typically share our opinions.  People rarely fact check on social media. We also read newspapers, which have an increasingly political bias, and a high percentage of us fail to fact check.

I decided if I was going to truly escape from newspapers and social media bias, then I was going to have to train myself to be able to forecast independently. As a first step, I built a website that enabled me to place forecasts and to track whether I was right or wrong. I added a scoring system so there was feedback for my predictions.  This was important as most people don't keep track of their predictions and the results.

Every day I made forecasts on politics, sports, weather, finances, entertainment, and just about anything else I could think of.  I thought anybody can make correct guesses in their own field of expertise, but how many people can make correct predictions outside of it?  Even that prediction was wrong!  In fact, it turns out that Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) are bad forecasters in their own field!

I learned there are two parts to being a good forecaster:

  1. A good gut feel
  2. Being able to show your "thought process."  Show how you worked through an "Outside Model" that is refined by an "Inside Model." 
I started out remarkably bad at forecasting. I soon learned to differentiate between the things I wasn’t so sure of, and mark these at a lesser percentage, from those that I was quite sure about, which I would place at a higher percentage. I also began regularly adjusting my prediction when new evidence became available. It actually started to feel a lot like betting, because I used a simple gamification hook with an avatar who gets weaker or stronger depending on my average score.

The bottom line, after 50 bets, I was actually able to predict with 95% accuracy that Donald Trump would be the next President many months before the actual election.

My goal now is to help other people improve their predictive powers as I did. The system still needs a lot of work.  Today it helps people improve their gut instinct, which is an improvement as I went from 25% accuracy to to 75% in just three months of time.  My plan now is to roll the system out to the general public as a beta.  You can register by simply emailing peterzrogers@hotmail.com, and I will send you the website address and a secure login token.

I am also very interested in talking to people who would like to take the system forward because I strongly believe that digital systems to enhance forecasting are in demand.

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Kevin Benedict
Senior Analyst, Center for the Future of Work, Cognizant Writer, Speaker and World Traveler
View my profile on LinkedIn
Follow me on Twitter @krbenedict
Subscribe to Kevin'sYouTube Channel
Join the Linkedin Group Strategic Enterprise Mobility
Join the Google+ Community Mobile Enterprise Strategies

***Full Disclosure: These are my personal opinions. No company is silly enough to claim them. I am a mobility and digital transformation analyst, consultant and writer. I work with and have worked with many of the companies mentioned in my articles.